Dadka jecel shukulaatada waxay u baahan yihiin kiniin qadhaadh si ay u liqaan - qiimaha cuntada ay jecel yihiin ayaa lagu wadaa inay kor u kacdo xagga dambe ee kharashka kookaha ee sarreeya.
Qiimaha shukulaatada ayaa kor u kacay 14% sanadkii la soo dhaafay, xogta laga helay xogta xogta macluumaadka macaamiisha NielsenIQ ayaa muujisay.Sida laga soo xigtay qaar ka mid ah ilaalada suuqa, waxay ku dhow yihiin inay kor u kacaan sababtoo ah sahayda kookaha oo cidhiidhi ah, oo ah qayb muhiim ah oo ka mid ah cuntooyinka aadka loo jecel yahay.
"Suuqa kookaha waxa uu la kulmay sare u kac la yaab leh oo qiimaha … Xilli ciyaareedkan waxa uu muujinayaa hoos u dhac labaad oo xiriir ah, iyadoo kookaha soo afjaraya kaydka la filayo in uu hoos u dhaco si aan caadi ahayn," Falanqeeyaha Cilmi-baarista Badeecadaha Caalamiga ah ee S&P Sergey Chetvertakov ayaa u sheegay CNBC email ahaan.
Qiimaha kookaha jimcihii ayaa kor u kacay $3,160 halkii metrik ton - kii ugu sarreeyay tan iyo Maajo 5, 2016. Badeecadu waxa uu ahaa ganacsigii ugu dambeeyay ee $3,171 metrik ton.
Qiimaha kookaha ayaa kor u kacay ilaa 7-sano oo sarreeya
Chetvertakov waxa uu intaa ku daray in imaanshaha ifafaalaha cimilo ee El Nino la saadaalinayo in ay ka keeni doonto roobab ka hooseeya celceliska iyo dabaylaha Harmattan ee Galbeedka Afrika oo inta badan laga beero kookaha.Cote d'Ivoire iyo Ghana ayaa ah in ka badan 60% wax soo saarka kookaha adduunka.
El Nino waa dhacdo cimilo oo caadiyan keenta kulayl iyo qallayl ka badan xaaladaha caadiga ah ee badhtamaha iyo bari ee kulaylaha Badweynta Baasifigga.
Chetvertakov waxa uu saadaaliyay in suuqa kookaha uu hoos u dhigi karo khasaare kale xilli ciyaareedka soo socda, kaas oo socon doona Oktoobar ilaa Sebtembar sanadka soo socda.Waxayna taasi ka dhigan tahay in mustaqbalka kookaha uu kor ugu kici karo ilaa $3,600 halkii metrik ton, marka loo eego qiyaasihiisa.
"Waxaan rumaysanahay in macaamiishu ay tahay inay naftooda u huraan suurtagalnimada qiimaha shukulaatada oo sarreeya," ayuu yidhi, sidasoo saarayaasha shukulaatadawaxaa lagu qasbay in ay u gudbiyaan kharashaadka wax soo saarka sare ee macaamiisha marka ay sii wadaan in ay ku tuujiyaan kor u kaca kharashyada alaabta ceeriin, kor u kaca kharashaadka tamarta iyo heerka dulsaarka sare.
Qayb weyn oo ka mid ah waxa ka mid ah samaynta shukulaatada waa subagga kookaha, kaas oo sidoo kale arkay kor u kaca 20.5% qiimaha sanadka ilaa taariikhda, marka loo eego xogta qiimaha alaabta cuntada ee Mintec.
Sare u qaad qiimaha sonkorta iyo subagga kookaha
"Maadaama shukulaatada ay ugu horrayn ka samaysan tahay subagga kookaha, oo ay ku jiraan qaar ka mid ah khamriga kookaha oo lagu daray madow ama caano, qiimaha subagga ayaa ah midka ugu toosan ee ka tarjumaya sida qiimaha shukulaatada uu u dhaqaaqi doono," ayuu yiri agaasimaha Mintec ee Insights Commodity Andrew Moriarty.
Waxa uu intaa ku daray in isticmaalka kookaha uu "ku dhow yahay heerka ugu sarreeya ee Yurub."Gobolku waa soo dejinta ugu weyn adduunka.
Sonkorta, oo ah walax kale oo udub dhexaad u ah shukulaatada, ayaa sidoo kale arkaysa kor u kaca qiimaha - jebinta sare ee 11-sano ee Abriil.
"Mustaqbalka sonkortu waxay sii wadaan inay taageero ka helaan walaacyada saadka ee socda ee India, Thailand, Mainland China iyo Midowga Yurub, halkaas oo xaaladaha abaaruhu ay ku dhufteen dalagyada," warbixin ay soo saartay qaybta cilmi-baarista ee Fitch Solutions, BMI, oo ku taariikhaysan May 18.
Oo sidaas oo kale, qiimaha shukulaatada sare lama filayo inay hoos u dhacaan wakhti dhow.
"Baahida xooggan ee sii socota ee ku xiran wax kasta oo tilmaamayaasha dhaqaale ee qofku doorto in la eego waxay sare u qaadi kartaa qiimaha mustaqbalka la filayo," ayuu yiri Falanqeeyaha Sare ee Barchart Darin Newsom.
"Kaliya haddii dalabku bilaabo inuu dib u dhaco, wax aanan u malaynaynin inuu weli dhacay, ayaa qiimaha shukulaatada bilaabi doona inuu dib u dhaco," ayuu yidhi.
Noocyada kala duwan ee shukulaatada, qiimaha mugdiga ayaa lagu soo waramayaa inuu noqon doono midka ugu adag.Shukulaatada madow waxay ka kooban tahay kookaha adag marka la barbar dhigo dhiggiisa shukulaatada cad iyo caanaha, oo ka kooban qiyaastii 50% ilaa 90% kookaha adag, subagga kookaha, iyo sonkorta.
"Natiijo ahaan, qiimaha shukulaatada ee aadka u saameeyay waxay noqon doontaa mugdi, kaas oo ay ku dhowdahay gebi ahaanba qiimaha walxaha kookaha," ayuu yiri Mintec's Moriarty.
Waqtiga boostada: Juun-15-2023
